IILD Poll Predicts Deadlock: BNP and Jamaat-led Alliances Locked in Tight Race

Key Projections: The survey projects that the BNP-led coalition will secure 44.1% of the popular vote, while the Jamaat-led alliance is expected to garner 43.9%. Despite the marginal lead in vote share for BNP, the Jamaat alliance holds a slight advantage in "confirmed seats," leading in 105 constituencies compared to BNP’s 101.

The Battleground:

Swing Seats: A critical 75 seats are identified as high-intensity battlegrounds where a neck-and-neck contest is expected.

Undecided Voters: 6.5% of the electorate remains undecided, representing a crucial segment that could ultimately tilt the balance.

Methodology: Supported by Projection BD and Jagaran Foundation, the survey interviewed 63,115 voters across all 300 constituencies between January 21 and February 5.

Referendum Sentiment: Public interest in a referendum remains high, with 74.9% awareness among respondents. An overwhelming 89.6% expressed their intent to vote ‘Yes.’ IILD Executive Director Shafiul Alam presented the findings today at a press briefing in Purana Paltan, noting that the data reflects sentiments gathered after the finalization of candidate lists and alliances.