Middle East Eye Analysis: Is This the End of Netanyahu’s Political Career?
After days of rhetoric aimed at dismantling Iranian influence, the shift toward diplomacy has sent shockwaves through the Israeli political landscape. The 10-point plan proposed by Tehran includes maintaining uranium enrichment, securing Iran’s regional allies, seeking reparations for aggression, and—most critically—granting Iran the authority to collect transit fees from every vessel traversing the Strait of Hormuz. If Washington accepts these terms, analysts believe it would mark a definitive defeat for Netanyahu’s 30-year political legacy.
According to reports from the New York Times, Netanyahu was the primary architect behind dragging the Trump administration into the direct military escalation that began on February 28. The original objective of the strikes was the total collapse of the Iranian leadership; however, the current strategic reality appears to be the exact opposite. Iran has emerged from the 40-day conflict with its ballistic missile capabilities intact and its nuclear infrastructure positioned for a rapid restart. The prospect of Iran controlling the "lifeline of the global economy" through transit fees would force neighboring Arab states to become dependent on Tehran for their oil and gas exports, fundamentally shifting the regional balance of power.
The proposed peace framework places the Abraham Accords—the landmark normalization agreements between Israel and several Arab nations—under severe threat. Netanyahu’s career-long mission to portray Iran as the world’s singular existential threat has ironically paved the way for Tehran to consolidate its status as a regional hegemon. Furthermore, the perceived American pivot toward a compromise with Tehran has called into question the reliability of U.S. defense guarantees among Gulf allies. Should Washington cede control of the Persian Gulf’s security dynamics to Iran, it would signify a massive withdrawal of Western influence and leave Israel strategically isolated.
Netanyahu now finds himself in a desperate domestic situation, facing accusations of a historic diplomatic and military miscalculation. By provoking a war that has seemingly empowered his greatest adversary, he has provided his political opponents in Israel with significant leverage. Critics argue that instead of neutralizing the "Iranian threat," his policies have gifted Tehran a legitimate path to becoming an influential global energy gatekeeper. As the peace talks in Islamabad progress, the survival of Netanyahu’s government may depend on his ability to derail a deal that many now view as the final nail in his political coffin.
