Oil Prices Projected to Surpass $150 in May Amid Strait of Hormuz Crisis

However, the firm warns that if the blockade persists through mid-May, crude oil prices are at significant risk of soaring beyond the $150 mark. Given that approximately one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas supply flows through this strait, any prolonged obstruction creates an immediate and severe imbalance in global distribution.

Market analysts predict that prices will likely remain above $100 throughout the second quarter of 2026 as global inventories continue to deplete. While a partial reopening of the strait could lead to stabilization in the latter half of the year, the prolonged period of high energy costs poses a major threat to global economic growth, potentially triggering a recession. Furthermore, U.S. President Donald Trump's commitment to maintaining military pressure on Iran has intensified market anxiety, leading to erratic trading patterns. If diplomatic resolutions do not restore normalcy to the Strait of Hormuz soon, the world may witness a lasting energy crisis with profound impacts on global consumption.